CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS SLOW DUBLIN HOUSE BUILDING

The four local authorities in the greater Dublin area recently issued their Strategic Review of Housing in Dublin.

This review points out that the population of the greater Dublin area stood at 1.06 million in 1996, an increase of 3.4% over the 1991 figure. However, the number of housing units in the area increased from 312,000 in 1991 to 344,000 in 1996 - an increase of 10.25%.

The average number of occupants per dwelling therefore fell in the five years to 1996 and, indeed, continues to fall.

In late 1997 the four local authorities identified a capacity for an additional 38,907 housing units to be built in the greater Dublin area on land that was both zoned for residential development and which had the relevant services available (water, sewerage etc.).

A further 40,407 units could be provided on unserviced land, subject to the provision of necessary services. With the number of housing units built in Dublin recently touching 8,500 units per annum, these figures suggest that existing land resources would be exhausted in 4.6 years (for serviced land) and a further 4.8 years (for currently unserviced land). The report itself concludes that about 10,000 units p.a. will be required

A Government commissioned report on strategic Planning Guidelines for the Dublin area identifies a capacity for 10,300 housing units p.a. to be built in the period 1998-2006. However, the same report indicates that demand levels will be for 14,000 new dwellings per annum from now until 2011.

A separate report, commissioned by Homebond (the National House Building Guarantee Company) and prepared by PA Consultants, identifies a gap of up to five years between confirmation of zoning and the actual provision of services. Therefore, according to PA, about 30,000 to 40,000 required new homes cannot be built in the short term.

The PA report lists Road and Infrastructure difficulties, Planning Objections, Planning Administrative delays and delays by Local Authorities in the provision of both water supplies and sewerage as contributory factors or blockages in the system.

PA forecast new household numbers from 1998 through 2006 as being not less than 30,000 annually, having peaked in 1998 at close to 40,000.

Higher densities have been accepted politically but now the predictable wrangle is underway regarding the desirability for sustainability in new design and layout. In addition, PA point out that while the number of persons per dwelling may now be lower than ever before, we cannot lose sight of the fact that a very large percentage of the population is now, or shortly will be, in the child bearing years.

Thus, while single people may require and accept smaller accommodation, there is no guarantee that such accommodation will meet the longer-term housing needs of society as a whole.

COMPULSORY SOCIAL HOUSING ELEMENT

Three of the four Dublin local authorities have included, in their overall Development Control Plans, a requirement that all major private housing developments must incorporate a social housing element. This follows a Government decision to this effect but the mechanics of how this will work have not yet been clarified.

In the view of both the IAVI (Irish Auctioneers & Valuers Institute) and the IHBA (Irish Home Builders Association), Government and local authorities in general may have some difficulty in implementing what may be a laudable aim. The Irish Constitution (a written document like that of the United States) guarantees private property rights.

It is difficult to see how affordable, and therefore presumably subsidised, housing can be included in private developments unless the taxpayer foots the subsidisation costs.
If not, consumers of private housing will, whether they like it or not, be directly subsidising the cost of housing some of their neighbours. Builders' profits are unlikely to be voluntarily reduced and therefore any profits foregone on social housing, will be made up at the expense of the "normal" home buyer.

This is in many ways what happens at Macro level but to try to impose this solution at Micro level - i.e. within individual developments directly affecting individual groups of buyers - is another matter altogether.

The PA report has suggested that local authorities should undertake joint developments with builders (an expansion of the Public-Private Partnership concept) not alone on virgin or brown field land but also in redeveloping dated schemes. PA point out that increased densities and new design criteria should enhance the viability of such joint-venture projects. They also say that such new developments will require much lower maintenance costs into the future.

We share a collective concern that some younger members of our society are being excluded at present from the comfort of home ownership (80% of Irish homes are owner-occupied with the public and private rented sector accounting for the balance).

However, that concern does not prevent groups or individuals lodging groundless and unfair objections to housing developments under the planning system. The attitude seems to be "of course you must build more houses, but not on my doorstep".

Similarly, it is difficult to see this general concern creating a situation where new house buyers will accept that they must pay a higher price for their home simply to assist a less fortunate neighbour to secure a place on the home ownership ladder. It is up to government, and not private enterprise, to assist the public in achieving what is a desirable national goal - home ownership for all those who aspire to it.

There is a price to pay for the economic success enjoyed by Ireland in recent years - house prices that substantially exceed those of just a year or two ago. In these circumstances, we must either accept that our very high level of home ownership as a percentage of the population will reduce or else the State, through the tax system, must bridge the gap for certain individuals.