Obama’s Major Veep Error?

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Editorial / Periscope - Niall O'Dowd

Obama’s Major Veep Error?

September 18, 2008

Editorial

SUPPORTERS of Hillary Clinton are busy preparing their “I told you so” scripts after an extraordinary few weeks in the presidential race. As Republicans turned a whiter shade of Palin, white women’s support surged for her.

Democrats were left asking the fundamental question of whether Barack Obama’s biggest error was not picking Clinton as his vice president as women deserted him in droves, and several polls showed John McCain ahead for the first time.

After all, they argued John F. Kennedy had picked his nemesis, Lyndon Johnson in 1960, a move that delivered Texas and the election.

Obama had refused to take the same calculated gamble in 2008 to ensure his own victory, even though it would have nailed down women and blue collar ethnic voters in key states.

In one fell swoop the Sarah Palin pick has allowed McCain to don the mantle of change, remove the stigma of the Bush era and given the media a new shiny toy to preoccupy themselves with for a week or two at least.

It is the kind of political jujitsu Republicans have become noted for. In 2004 they ran against John Kerry’s war record, which seemed his strongest point.

Now they are running directly against one of Obama’s perceived strengths, his ability to attract women voters, and so far it seems to be working.

Their audacious hijacking of Obama’s message of change has startled the punditocracy. McCain can do so because Palin is a fresh face, based as far from Washington as an American can be.

It has long been an article of faith that vice presidential picks have at most a 5% impact either way on the ticket. After all, George Bush senior got away with Dan Quayle and still won in 1988.

Palin is different, however, and has changed the equation forever. She has created a barnstorming energy around the McCain campaign which has shocked it out of its previously somnolence. Most importantly, women are flocking to her.

A Newsweek poll on Monday morning showed Obama and McCain tied in the race for the White House at 46% each.

The real story with the numbers, however, was McCain’s gathering strength with white women voters.

Palin seems to have struck a chord with working women of her own generation in particular. They see a woman juggling family and career, yet able to hold her own in the male dominated world of high stakes politics.

The one person who could help halt the Palin surge has been canvassing for Obama herself in several states, but Clinton was staying well away from the kind of personal attacks that have elevated Palin to a cult figure on the Republican side.

For Clinton there is grim vindication in the current upheaval. Despite her supportive convention speech praising Obama, there is no doubt she is still seething after it emerged that Obama never considered her seriously for vice president.

Obama won the most closely contested Democratic nomination in history. The sure step would have been to bring Clinton on board and assuage the doubts of her 18 million voters.

Instead he went in a different direction, choosing Joe Biden, who got fewer votes in the Democratic primary than Palin got when elected mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, population 6,500.

Biden has been a bust so far in terms of attracting new voters to the ticket. The electricity is suddenly crackling on the other side, with massive crowds turning up for Palin/McCain appearances.

Obama himself seems perplexed and off message. His campaign will be looking to the three debates with McCain, the first at the end of September, to regain their momentum.

At least Palin will not be present at those.

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