Push On for Immigration Reform

Immigration reform will be a hot topic in Congress this week when a bipartisan group of 12 key senators from both parties meet to discuss what the proposed immigration reform package will look like.

Insiders say that a bill could be through the Senate and the House by the end of June this year, which would be quite an achievement.

Time is of the essence. If this window is not taken advantage of then it will be January 2009 before the next opportunity arises.

By the fall of 2007 presidential election politics will become front and center and immigration reform will be considered a very risky topic for most of the candidates. The opportunity to pass a bill occurs between now and then.

There have been a number of interesting developments this week, all positive. In the first The New York Times reported that President Bush made clear that reform would be a top priority for him when he met with Senate and House Democrats who are taking over the leadership in Congress next month.

As one person at the meeting noted, Bush was more animated on the prospects for immigration reform than he was on any other issue. The Boston Globe reported that Bush has actually begun a series of high level contacts with leading Democrats to smooth the way for passage of a bill.

White House sources believe that he can sway the vote of up to 80 Republicans in the House, where the bill that went through the Senate this year never got to a vote. If he were able to achieve that then the reform package would most likely pass.

The other interesting development was that the incoming House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, of Maryland, has made clear that he believes immigration reform is doable in the new Congress.

Hoyer plays a key role in rounding up the votes for the Democratic agenda, so he obviously feels confident that a bill sent from the Senate can get passed in the House.

Relief for Crowley

ONE congressman breathing a sigh of relief that Hoyer won his race for majority leader is Joe Crowley from Queens, whose political star is firmly hitched to the Hoyer wagon.

When Crowley ran for the number four position in the House last year, Hoyer backed him, but Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi opposed Crowley and he was surprisingly defeated.

This time around Crowley was one of the first to endorse Hoyer against Pelosi’s candidate, John Murtha, the Pennsylvania Democrat whose outspoken opposition to the Iraq war has won him many admirers.

It must have been a tense few days for Crowley, one of the smartest young prospects in the Democratic Party. Hoyer’s win means he will be a major player in the new Democratic leadership in the House.

Meanwhile, over on the Republican side, there is ill-disguised anger over President Bush’s failure to fire Donald Rumsfeld as defense secretary before the election.

Several leading Irish American Republicans, some of whom lost their seats, are said to be disgusted that Bush held back on Rumsfeld’s firing, believing if he had done it earlier they would have retained their seats.

All-Ireland Celtic Tiger?

HOW far have things come in Ireland, north and south, since the Troubles and the beginning of the Celtic Tiger?

Consider the following statement made by Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern to a British businessman’s group this week. He is referring to Irish government plans to invest heavily in Northern Ireland if a peace deal is signed.

“The people of Northern Ireland certainly have the capacity and the drive to succeed. We are in negotiations with the Treasury and the Northern Ireland administration about a potential package that can help both economies, north and south.”

The Irish government’s 2007-2013 National Development Plan, to be announced in January, will include a significant all-island dimension.

“For our part, we wish to work with the British government and the new Northern Ireland Executive to build an even stronger economy,” Ahern added.

Not so long ago the major argument against a united Ireland was the poor economy in the south vis a vis the North. Now the tables have been turned in spectacular style to the point where we are talking about exporting the Celtic Tiger over the border. Who woulda thunk it?

Poll Keeps Ahern Ahead

SPEAKING of Ahern, the latest political poll in Ireland taken by The Sunday Business Post seems to cement the notion that he is heading back to power after the next election in the spring of 2007.

The poll showed Ahern’s party Fianna Fail at 39% support and his coalition partner the Progressive Democrats at 4%.

Fine Gael, the main opposition led by Enda Kenny, was at 23%, with the Labor Party at around 12%. Other smaller parties make up the remainder.

The booming economy obviously has a lot to do with Ahern’s popularity, but there is also the reality for voters as the election closes in that Ahern has done a very good job on issues such as the North and the economy. It seems there is an increasing reluctance to change horses as a result.

The only caveat to that is that it is an increasingly volatile electorate in Ireland, and that there is still six months or so to go before the election. However, given the current trend, Ahern may be on track to be the longest serving taoiseach in Irish history.