Luntz a Key Figure

IF you were to name a pivotal figure in the upcoming Irish election, that of Frank Luntz, the Republican Party pollster, would hardly come to mind.

Yet in Ireland he is a name on everyone’s lips. Luntz, who claims authorship of Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” which propelled the Republican congressman to power back in 1994, is currently a key figure in Ireland.

That is because he has been contracted by Irish television to hold a series of focus groups to discover which party is likely to win the next election, and to divine what exactly voters are thinking.

Luntz’s focus groups have become the talk of the election. Last Sunday he put 32 men and women from the small western town of Boyle in Co. Roscommon in a room and monitored closely their reaction to the convention speeches of all the party leaders. In addition he asked them questions on what the major issues were and which government they wanted to see.

Meanwhile, some political experts analyzed the data as it was coming back to them, and the end result was a pretty hard nosed outline of where the election is going.

Except perhaps it wasn’t. One of the weaknesses of the Luntz approach in an Irish context is that it is leadership driven. That is perfectly fine in an American presidential election where the personality of the candidate is paramount.

In Ireland, however, the local issues are spread across over 43 constituencies with a very complex type of voting system known as proportional representation, which lends itself to far more ambiguities and shades of meaning than Luntz seemed prepared to accept.

He discovered to no one’s surprise that Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern personally is very popular, far more so than any other leader. That will obviously be a huge factor in the election, but it may well not be the defining one.

Luntz’s conclusion that the electorate, based on his focus groups, want a Fianna Fail/Labor government also has potential major difficulties as Labor are currently aligned in a coalition agreement with Fine Gael.

The end result may well have been to muddy already brown waters even more. What is certain is that the election result in Ireland still has a very uncertain outcome, American pollsters aside.

Place Your Bets!

THE betting on what parties will form the next Irish government is also intriguing.

Leading bookmaker Paddy Power makes a Fine Gael/ Labor/Green Party coalition a marginal favorite at odds of 9/4, or $4 down to win $9. That would make Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny the next taoiseach.

Right behind is the current

government, the Fianna Fail/ Progressive Democrats coalition at 5/2. The Luntz combination of Fianna Fail/Labor is at 9/2.

But when it comes to who will be the next taoiseach Ahern remains favorite, reflecting the fact that he has several different combinations that could put him back in power with the Progressive Democrats, with Sinn Fein, with Labor or with some other combination. Kenny has really only the Labor/Green combination to depend on.

All in all it promises to be an intriguing election.

Labor Absent from ILIR Meeting

NOTABLY absent from the slew of political leaders who showed up at the Irish Lobby for Immigration Reform event in Dublin last weekend was any representative from the Labor Party.

Fianna Fail and Fine Gael were there, as well as Sinn Fein, the SDLP, a few independents and a late arriving member of the Green Party, John Gormley, their foreign affairs spokesman.

The Labor party, however, were nowhere to be seen, surprising as many of those who were present were from urban areas.

The current Labor leader Pat Rabbitte appears to have little or no rapport on Irish American issues. Unlike predecessors such as Dick Spring and Ruari Quinn, both very frequent visitors to these shores, Rabbitte has rarely been seen over here.

It was surprising, however, that it took a member of his own party, former Louth general election candidate Frank Carney, who has an undocumented son in the U.S., to point up the absence of any major figure of his own party at the event.

Pirate Queen Fights Back

ALTHOUGH it was panned by critics the Broadway show The Pirate Queen is not lying down or taking it on the chin.

Predictions that the show will be gone off Broadway in a few months because of the bad reviews will prove well short of the mark, according to key figures associated with the production which, believe us, is a truly enjoyable event.

Indeed, the show has taken in very good box office despite the reviews for the next few weeks and beyond. The word of mouth, it appears, remains very good. The cast also did an excellent appearance on the ABC show The View on Tuesday morning, which will surely spike ticket sales.

A musical is often better able to overcome bad reviews than a play. That is because many out of towners (who love musicals) are not influenced by critics, while regular play goers are. It will be interesting to see if The Pirate Queen is able to buck the critics in the months and years ahead.

There is also the fact that Riverdance was also disliked by the critics, when it first opened and we all know what happened with that. Riverdance of course was a production by The Pirate Queen producers Moya Doherty and John McColgan.