Intelligencer

Blair Under Pressure

British Prime Minister Tony Blair hardly got his feet under the desk in 10 Downing Street when the calls for his resignation began to echo in the media.

It was not the opposition Conservative Party who led the shouts, but rather his own colleagues, especially those who had lost their seats because of Blair’s position on the Iraq war.

Blair has made it clear he will hand over the leadership to Gordon Brown, the immensely more popular treasury secretary before the next election, but many in his party want him to so sooner rather than later.

Blair is actually expected to stay about three years, but his own party might organize an internal putsch against him before that.

The ramifications for Ireland are real. Without Blair at the helm it seems impossible that any new deal can be struck.

Thus, time is of the essence for the next major initiative in the North. Sooner rather than later may well become the watchword.

A Future SF Leader ?

Almost all the Sinn Fein leadership are in their mid to late fifties at present, which means some of them may well have contested their last Westminster election.

All of which leads to the intriguing speculation about who will take over the party when this generation of Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness, Gerry Kelly, Pat Doherty, Mitchel McLaughlin, et al leave the stage.

Perhaps the clue was in Newry/South Armagh, where the youthful Conor Murphy, just 41, won the Westminster seat held for decades by Seamus Mallon, the former deputy leader of the SDLP.

His victory certainly makes him the man to watch. Murphy is a fierce Adams loyalist in an area that includes South Armagh, which would have its share of Republican fundamentalists who disagree with the peace strategy. He also did time when he was in the IRA, probably a necessary prerequisite for any future Sinn Fein leader.

Murphy is described as a very safe pair of hands with a deep interest in the new style of campaign politicking, which includes technological innovations such as using the Internet, etc. It will be very interesting to chart his progress over the next decade or so.

Other Contenders

Of course, Murphy may not be alone in a Sinn Fein leadership race in the future. Bairbre de Brun, the European Parliament member, would be a possibility for a party that has been actively seeking high profile women.

There might also be contenders from the south, such as the popular Irish Parliament member Arthur Morgan from Louth. A real dark horse would be young Pearse Doherty, a Sinn Fein representative in Donegal, who just missed a seat in Europe and has impressed party officials with his political acumen.

Durkan Win No Surprise

Mark Durkan’s victory in Foyle for the SDLP was a win that confounded the bookies who had made Sinn Fein’s Mitchel McLaughlin a strong favorite.

But was that realistic given the past history of the seat. As has been pointed out, the last time John Hume ran in the British general election he won by a total of 14,000 votes.

In the Assembly elections a few years later with Hume not contesting, the 14,000 shrunk to 4,000. The vote did not go to Sinn Fein but stayed home.

This time, with Hume by his side, Durkan managed to bring those stray SDLP voters back into the fold. While Sinn Fein actually increased their vote in the election, there probably was very little hope to begin with that they could take the seat.

The Next Generation

Among those elected to council seats in Northern Ireland in elections which were held side by side with the Westminster ones were the son of Peter and Iris Robinson, a niece of John Hume, a nephew of Mark Durkan and several relatives of leading Sinn Fein figures. No doubt the next generation of political leaders is already being groomed.

Among those who departed the stage were Ken McGuinness, now Lord McGuinness, who failed to take a council seat in Tyrone, David Trimble, of course, and several other Ulster Unionist MPs who have reached the end of the road. It’s a tough game.

No SDLP/Fianna Fail Link

Chatter that Fianna Fail, the largest party in the Irish Republic, was about to merge with the SDLP in the North in order to counter the Sinn Fein challenge will hardly get beyond the “what if?” stage after this election.

The scenario being painted was the SDLP vote completely collapsing and Fianna Fail, which always claimed it is an All-Ireland party, piecing together the remnants of the party and presenting a whole new challenge to Sinn Fein, the better to keep them off their back in the south.

However, it is extremely unlikely that scenario will happen now and certainly, Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern has given no indication that he will move in that direction at this time.