Good Prospects for Immigration Bill

Capitol Hill sources say they are “cautiously optimistic” of prospects for passage of the Kennedy/McCain immigration bill which was introduced earlier this month.

If passed the bill would allow illegal immigrants a path to green cards and citizenship and also allow more legal immigration into the U.S. under strictly controlled rules.

The sources say that the bill will face its big test towards the end of this year when it will come to the Senate floor for a vote. At the moment efforts are underway to have a large number of senators sign on as co sponsors.

The optimistic view is that the bill will clear the Senate and will be supported by the White House. However, the White House has said nothing publicly so far about Kennedy/McCain. Some Capitol Hill experts believe that the White House is drafting its own legislation, though administration officials have denied that.

There is also the stumbling block in the House of Congressman James Sensenbrenner, who piloted the recent anti-immigrant Real ID act through Congress. Sensenbrenner has not shown his hand on Kennedy/McCain, but supporters of the bill are fearful that he will be a major stumbling block.

Schumer a Problem?

While most Democrats are signing up for Kennedy/McCain, sources say they are worried that New York Senator Charles Schumer will not get behind it.

Schumer has given no indication so far how he will vote on it, which has surprised many observers who remember that Schumer led the fight some years back to have immigration legislation helpful to those seeking to enter the country passed.

The other New York senator, Hillary Clinton, is fully expected to support the bill say backers, and they believe that Schumer, with some immigrant groups lobbying him, will also sign up for it.

Feinstein Opposes

One of the first politicians to voice an opinion on the bill was Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein of California who announced that she is opposing it.

Feinstein has moved from the left over towards the hard right  of the Democratic Party, and her stance on immigration issues has reflected that shift.

The former San Francisco mayor is said to be contemplating a run for governor in two years, so she may well be calculating that a liberal stance on illegal immigration may not be to her benefit.

Still, it is surprising that a woman who was once considered one of the most liberal politicians in the Senate has now come out so early against a bill that would help millions of her own constituents in California.

Blue Card Immigrant Legislation

One of the odder proposals before the Senate at the moment is an immigration bill Senator John Cornyn of Texas and Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona, both Republicans, have proposed.

The bill would allow the undocumented to work legally in the U.S., but would send them home after three years. Kyl refers to it as his “blue card” bill as opposed to green cards, we suppose.

The bill has no chance of passage, but it sets up the dynamic for the entire issue. On which side of this key question will the White House come down on? Can undocumented immigrants stay if they come forward and become part of the system?

The fact is, however, that American business wants the Kennedy/McCain bill to pass. Illegal immigrants are a huge and under-reported part of the American work force, and there are simply too many industries that would be in deep trouble if they were all shipped back.

It is highly unlikely they would settle for the faintly ridiculous “blue card” system where they would train and employ workers only to lose them.

Great Coverage for Bill

The Kennedy/McCain bill has certainly caught the attention of the media. The New York Times welcomed it with open arms, as did The Economist in a highly favourable article, which tells you where wise business people are at.

The Atlanta Constitution also weighed in, as did dozens of newspapers across the United States.

Let’s bear in mind, however, that the endorsement of newspapers can matter little, as Senator John Kerry, who heavily outscored President Bush on such matters can ruefully attest to.

Then of course there’s CNN’s Lou Dobbs, who rants nightly about illegal immigration to the point of being almost racist. Of course, Dobbs never mentioned the story a few weeks back that Social Security payments collected from undocumented form a huge part of the Social Security surplus at present, because illegals never collect the benefits.

Dobbs railed against the Kennedy/McCain bill as could be expected. Hopefully he will have no impact, other than that of just another TV crank.