By Niall O'Dowd

THE Irish government coalition of Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats looked on shaky ground this week after revelations that Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern took loans from business friends totaling about $70,000, and was paid $10,000 for a speech he gave in Manchester at a time when he was minister for finance.

Both events happened back in the early 1990s and were leaked from a confidential tribunal set up to examine malfeasance in Irish politics after the era of scandals involving former Taoiseach Charles Haughey.

Ahern has always been a clean political figure despite the obvious corruption of major figures of the Haughey era, so the latest revelations have dealt a blow to his image.

He explained the loans as the actions of friends who knew he was in poor financial shape after separating from his wife Miriam. He explained the Manchester money as a whip around by friends after he had delivered a speech on the Irish economy in a private capacity.

The political opposition, of course, sees it all very differently. Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny has pointed out that the money was not repaid (though it was finally done so last weekend), and that it left Ahern beholden to friends who were in a position to influence economic policy.

Ahern has denied anyone benefited from giving him the loans, though he has stated that several of the friends were subsequently appointed to state boards.

As events unfolded most attention focused on the reaction of the Progressive Democrats, the tiny party which holds the balance of power and which was founded by Fianna Fail dissidents in part because of the scandals of the Haughey era.

With just a few interruptions Ireland has essentially been almost a one party state since its inception, with Fianna Fail figuring in almost every government either on their own or in tandem with other parties.

Such a lock on power, of course, increases the likelihood of graft, and it has become an ever-increasing media focus since the Haughey scandals broke.

The new Progressive Democrats party leader Michael McDowell asked for an explanation and received one in the Dail (Parliament) on Tuesday from the Taoiseach.

Both government parties are mindful of the fact that if they are forced to split, an election under the worst possible circumstances for them is then inevitable. Thus it hardly seemed likely that the two parties would break up their coalition, and that certainly now seems to be the case.

The upshot, however, is that the brouhaha has likely given a clear advantage to the opposition parties as the general election, which is expected by April of next year, looms larger.

Opinion polls have shown the race to be extremely close, and it is widely expected that the outcome may come down to horse trading between the parties in the week or so after the actual election date.

Ahern, however, is nothing if not an extremely resourceful politician who has retained remarkably high approval ratings throughout his 10-year tenure.

With the economy still barreling ahead and a deal on the North possible by year’s end, Ahern could well still capitalize on such positive news to win another term.

However, if there are more revelations to come about any other unorthodox financial dealings, then there is little doubt his party will be in deep trouble. Time will tell if he is over the worst of the revelations.