THE continued survival of a British prime minister is usually not a matter of grave concern for an Irish American newspaper, but in the case of Tony Blair, there are certainly grounds for dismay if he goes.

Given his role in the peace process, and the reality that there is no real alternative on this issue in British politics today, there has to be ever increasing fears about what would happen in Northern Ireland if Blair is replaced.

Blair is certainly undergoing the toughest time of his period as prime minister. He is facing a firestorm of criticism at home for his role in the Iraq war, where he was derided as President Bush’s poodle. 

He is also fighting a rearguard action after the suicide of a key Ministry of Defense official who had been identified by Blair’s handlers as the source of a damaging anti-Blair leak on Iraq. 

He is going through the typical second term doldrums most ruling politicians in whatever country face. An increasingly cynical electorate is far less forgiving than in previous generations, and a drumbeat for change in Britain is being orchestrated in the media.

There are those who have always argued that, when it comes to Ireland, it makes no difference who is occupying 10 Downing Street, but clearly in the case of Blair that is not the case.

He has quite simply been the best prime minister since William Gladstone, well over a century ago. His work on the Good Friday Agreement was inspired, and he has kept up a major commitment to the peace process irrespective of what has been happening elsewhere on his watch.

The Good Friday Agreement is the bedrock of Blair’s support among Irish Americans. We understand and know the immense effort it took for a British leader to take the calculated chance he did on that occasion, risk taking that would have been avoided by his predecessors.

But during his second term he has been less adventurous and less surefooted on the issue. Like British prime ministers before he has appeared to accept that Ulster Unionism – in this case, their leader David Trimble – is entitled to every benefit of the doubt, even when Trimble is patently wrong.

Consider Blair’s decision to cancel elections in Northern Ireland in May. Clearly that is now seen as a major mistake, as Northern Ireland drifts into an electoral no man’s land. There appears even less certainty now than ever that elections will be called anytime soon.

The reality is that the ballot box needed to be utilized to put it up to Unionism to either become a full part of the peace process, or to reject the best chance at peace in a generation. If Unionism decided no, then the two governments had the perfect blueprint to go ahead and essentially govern Northern Ireland side by side.

Blair, however, balked at creating such a defining moment, despite the best urgings of the Irish and U.S. governments and the overwhelming majority of political parties in the North.

It was a bridge to far for a politician who gives every impression that as he grows ever more comfortable with power, he seems prepared to take fewer and fewer chances in Northern Ireland.

Yet the alternatives to Blair are bleak prospects. Iain Duncan Smith, head of the Tories, seems utterly unsympathetic to the issue of Ireland. Likewise, Gordon Brown, Blair’s chancellor of the Exchequer and heir apparent, has little or no track record or seeming interest in the issue. 

We are at a crossroads in the North, and the last great push to implement the Good Friday Agreement will be underway in September. It is vitally important that Blair’s hand is still on the British tiller. While he has failed to act boldly in recent times, he is still far better than the alternatives.