THE odds of immigration reform this year have been estimated at 50/50, no better or no worse, by leading experts. Many factors go into that determination.

The most positive reason for change is the fact that the House and Senate are now in Democratic hands and they favor immigration reform more than Republicans. President George W. Bush remains an advocate of reform, though how strongly has never been fully teased out.

On the down side, the sheer complexity of the issue makes it daunting for many politicians to address, especially for those newly elected who want to sail in calmer waters. Equally, the proximity of the 2008 election campaign for the White House makes it an issue that every major candidate will want either settled or off the table when the campaign itself really starts up.

That is the conventional wisdom anyway. Like so much else in Washington these days, it could well be upended if, say, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi decides she wants to act quickly and completely and forces a debate on the issue through the House, as she could undoubtedly do.

This St. Patrick’s Day will allow the Irish government in particular an opportunity to asses where the speaker is coming from on the issue. Her statement to the Irish Lobby for Immigration Reform meeting last week in San Francisco, attended by over 1,500, was hopeful but by no means definitive in that regard.

She will host the speaker’s St. Patrick’s Day lunch on Capitol Hill which has become a yearly staple of St. Patrick’s week. It will be an unprecedented opportunity for Taoiseach (Prime Minster) Bertie Ahern to learn her views on the issue, and like the shrewd politician he is, no doubt he will take the opportunity to find out what she is thinking.

Pelosi will also be guest of honor at the American Ireland Fund dinner in D.C. on Wednesday, March 14, along with Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell from the GOP. Again, an opportunity presents itself to ascertain her true views.

Those views are so important because it will likely come down to her and some Republicans in the House to decide the fate of the immigration issue. It is considered very likely that the Senate will pass a better version of the Kennedy/McCain bill that made its way through the body last year. That bill, of course, never even set sail in the House because the GOP leadership there blocked it.

Pelosi is unlikely to do that, but how strongly she embraces the Senate bill or one like it will determine whether or not reform can be successful.

One of the possible scenarios may be that a lesser bill can make its way through the House and that the two bills, the House and the Senate’s, can then attempt to be reconciled in conference.

The Irish must stay agnostic on such a bill until they see exactly what it would entail. There is a widespread view in the community that any bill which allows ability to travel and work, while putting the issue of permanent legal status on the long finger until a later date, would suffice.

It would be fair to say that a quick path to U.S. citizenship is not an overwhelming goal in the Irish undocumented community. The figures have historically shown that the Irish, in comparison to other ethnic groups, have been slower to become U.S. citizens after meeting the minimum residency requirements.

There are powerful arguments in favor and against a plan that would offer temporary legal status without a path to citizenship, and there must also be a realization that for other ethnic groups temporary status alone would not be enough.

The most important reality is that the ethnic lobby groups must hang together or they quite simply will never win on the issue. But it is both smart and correct to keep all options open.