By NiallO’Dowd

February kicks off the immigration reform debate for 2007 in Congress, and we should know within a month or two which way it is heading.

The Senate will take up immigration reform at some point in the month, and we will see the old warhorses, Senators Edward Kennedy and John McCain, once more on the front lines leading the charge.

They will be introducing the Kennedy/McCain bill which is likely to attract similar if not better support than the bill they passed through the Senate last year. The good news is that this year’s bill will likely remove the tiered approach that made it easier for those here longer to get access to legal status than those who have more recently arrived.

From there the House will either consider its own bill or will take on board the Senate bill for consideration. It seems likely it will be a much longer process in the House because it is a more controversial piece of legislation there.

However, right now the odds are probably better than 50/50 that we will see a bill by year’s end that will land on President Bush’s desk for signature. But between then and now the landscape is still fraught with danger, and the 50,000 or so Irish undocumented need to be organized like never before.

On the plus side, there is no question that the 2006 midterm elections left immigration reform a far greater possibility than before that contest.

Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, the defeat of many hard-line anti immigrant representatives and the mass defection of Hispanics from the Republican Party because of the issue certainly will embolden advocates of reform.

On the negative side, we still have a hard core of Republican anti-immigrant forces in the House who are determined at all costs to stop immigration reform passing.

In addition, we have a relatively short window of about six months before presidential politics becomes an overriding consideration.

There are two opposing schools of thought on the impact of the presidential race and next year’s congressional elections. On the one hand, many believe that Democrats and Republicans might see it in their own interest to continue the immigration battle.

For Democrats, it proves that the GOP are anti-Hispanic. For right wing Republicans it provides red meat for their base and fodder for the likes of Rush Limbaugh and others to slam “amnesty” and the Democrats.

On the other hand, there are many reasons to believe both parties need to address the issue in this off year rather than wait for an election year when tensions are much higher.

President Bush desperately needs a domestic agenda win. Mired in Iraq, he has no significant domestic issue where he can point to a legislative success.

As the Los Angeles Times noted last week, immigration reform, where he shares common ground with Democrats, is that issue. In addition, many of his party know that they cannot win national elections without getting up to 40% of the Hispanic vote, which slumped to 29% last November.

To that end, Bush’s appointment of Senator Mel Martinez of Florida as chairman of the Republican National Committee is extremely significant. Martinez, an Hispanic, has made it clear that immigration reform is among his top priorities.

On the Democratic side, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has come to office promising to end the do nothing reputation that Congress had under Republican leadership. Immigration reform allows her a major opportunity to do so.

But the crux of the matter comes down to this — Pelosi will not move ahead without some Republican support in the House in order to make it a bi-partisan bill.

She will need about 40 votes or so from the Republican caucus out of 190 to pass this bill, as she will have defectors on her own side. Whether she can round those up may well determine whether we have a bill. My sense is that she will be able to.

Which is where the Irish lobby comes in. On Thursday night, February 1, the Irish Lobby for Immigration Reform will be in San Francisco, Pelosi’s home district, holding a rally to press home their support for immigration reform.

There are other meetings around the country in the next few weeks as well, culminating on Wednesday, March 7 in the Washington, D.C. rally day which was such a success last year.

It is time once again for the Irish to stand up and be counted. If they do, 2007 can be the year of reform.