By NiallO’Dowd

THE page scandal that has engulfed Capitol Hill this week makes it far more likely that the Democratic Party will win a significant victory in the House, and possibly take the Senate also in the November 7 midterm elections.

That would be very significant for hopes of immigration reform in the new Congress but, paradoxically, would make it very unlikely that any progress would be made on the issue in the lame duck session of Congress which will take place in November, before the new Congress is sworn in come January.

If Democrats are assured of a big majority in January they will hardly allow the GOP to bring forward an immigration bill that would be far less positive than one they may introduce themselves in the new session.

Certainly, they must like their chances very much as the election date approaches. A Gallup/USA Today poll on Monday showed that, on the generic question, the Democrats lead by a whopping 23 points over Republicans when people are asked which party they will vote for. By 59% to 36%, respondents stated they would prefer to vote for a Democratic candidate.

That is the largest total since the question was asked for the first time in 1978, and a clear indication that a meltdown in the Republican vote is underway at present. Whether the party can turn it around by November 7 remains to be seen, but it seems a long shot at present.

That is partly attributed to the Congressman Mark Foley scandal, as there are few issues more toxic than the notion of an abuse of trust when it affects young boys or girls. Ask the Catholic Church all about that.

But it is not just Foley. There is also widespread anger about the Republican-led Congress which has a favorability rating of only 20% among the public. Doubtless, the failure to act on issues such as immigration have also hit deeply.

It has been a disastrous few weeks for Republicans, with the Iraq war going badly, the Bob Woodward book poking holes in the White House arguments about the need to go to war in the first instance, and now the Foley scandal.

Despite the bad news, the party in the House had been determined to run in part on their get tough policy on immigration, which also appears to be backfiring.

According to several Latino publications, there will be a major backlash among Hispanic voters on this issue come November, which must also be factored into the calculation about what should be done about illegal immigration in the new Congress.

We should not forget, however, that there have been leading Republicans such as Senator John McCain and Senator Arlen Specter who have been advocates of comprehensive immigration reform. Whether they find themselves in the minority or majority they can be counted on as allies.

Important to note too that if it is a Democratic Congress then all will not be automatically sweetness and light on immigration. It is noticeable that the issue has not been pushed by the Democratic Party leadership in their run-up to the voting.

That is disappointing given the major efforts made by individual politicians in the party to make the issue a front and center one. It will be up to all the lobby groups to make sure that if Democrats are successful that immigration reform is on the front burner when the new Congress resumes in January.

The aim should be to have major legislation in place as one of the first priorities of the new Congress. The chances of achieving that have improved remarkably in the past few weeks.