By NiallO’Dowd

HARD to believe, but once upon a time Labor Day was the official start of presidential campaigns, and the candidates went hell for leather from then until Election Day.

These times, of course, it seems that we are in a state of perpetual election motion. Was it really over a year ago that the Democrats were battling it out for their own nomination, and Howard Dean was widely regarded as a shoo-in?

Indeed, we still appear to be in a permanent election cycle. Following last week’s Republican convention the media announced who the likely frontrunners for the GOP nomination in 2008 will be. Rudy Giuliani, “America’s Mayor” appears to be the favorite. 

On the Democratic side, if Senator John Kerry’s campaign loses, there seems little doubt it will be Senator Hillary Clinton versus current vice presidential candidate John Edwards, with Mrs. Clinton the hot favorite.

Rudy versus Hillary, anyone? Already it is being widely discussed. Now that is a race Irish New Yorkers who have considerable dealings with both politicians could sit back and enjoy. And don’t rule out New York Governor George Pataki, a firm favorite with local Irish Americans who could well make it a three way New York nomination race.

Giuliani’s three marriages, his pro-gay, pro-choice and gun control leanings may make it nigh impossible for him to win the Republican nomination, as their primary voters are notoriously more conservative than the party in general. Equally, there may be Clinton fatigue in the Democratic Party at that point. 

Hard to believe there is already this kind of discussion of 2008. This state of perpetual campaigning has meant that already there is considerable battle fatigue on both sides, and fewer and fewer voters left who still have to make up their minds. 

Yet many surprises may still lie ahead. Following the Republican convention Bush jumped out to an 11-point lead which confounded every election “expert” in the country. 

There is little question that when the numbers settle down he will be ahead by four or five points as the race enters its critical period. It will be close enough to leave everything to play for.

That’s the conventional wisdom anyway, the same wisdom that said this race would be as tight as a drum all through, that Dean was a cinch for the Democratic nomination and that Kerry was finished. The unpredictability is what makes politics such a fascinating, full contact sport.

Already on both sides, Irish American Republicans and Democrats are gearing up to do battle for their man. As we have stated previously, the ethnic Catholic vote is a key swing constituency in this election. That is good news for Irish American activists.

Already we are seeing both sides energized. The Irish American Republicans announced at their function at the Irish Famine Memorial in Manhattan last week that they would be specifically targeting key Irish American voters blocks during the fall campaign.

That mirrors what the Irish American Democrats (IAD) have planned. The IAD organization also plans a major event in Philadelphia timed to create the maximum outreach to ethnic voters. There are plans on both sides for expeditions to key battleground states.

The Irish machinations, of course, will be just a sideshow for the real battle which will take place between the two candidates. As they set off across the country — or at least to the battleground states — the race is still close enough to go either way. May the best man win.