PRESIDENT George W. Bush certainly defied many of the pundits when he won re-election quite easily in the end last Tuesday.

Opinion polls in the closing days appeared to show a race tilting in Senator John Kerry’s direction, but in the only poll that mattered Bush had a relatively facile victory.

From an Irish American perspective, one of the most interesting aspects was the fact that Bush won the Catholic vote quite handily, a reversal from the situation when he faced Al Gore four years ago. It was somewhat surprising given that Kerry is himself a Catholic, albeit one who was vehemently opposed by many senior clergy because of his pro-choice views.

It is also clear that the Bush administration will continue to stay involved in the Irish issue. Already the White House special envoy to the North, Mitchell Reiss, will be in Britain and Ireland this week meeting with the party leaders.

Such a quick signal of interest is to be welcomed from this administration which, in fairness, has always sought to help move the peace process along at every opportunity. Their help may be needed now more than ever. 

Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern stated this week that a solution was tantalizingly close and that all the parties needed to make immediate decisions as to where they wished the process to go.

It is obvious that there is agreement on a plan for final IRA decommissioning, something that Ahern did not contradict in his statement. If that is the case then the greatest piece of the jigsaw is in place and the outline of a truly historic settlement may be in the cards.

That will all depend, of course, on how the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) treats this historic opportunity. So far they appear unable to resolve among themselves whether to grasp this golden opportunity to do the deal with the two governments and Irish nationalism, or whether to continue to adopt the tactics of obstruct and stall which have become the Unionist trademark.

That is where the Bush administration may come in. After his victory Bush received fulsome praise from the DUP, delighted that a Democratic candidate who they perceived as more favorable to Nationalists had been defeated.

It may be time for the Bush administration to use that good will, in much the same way as Bill Clinton used it with Nationalists, to help carve an historic final settlement.

It is as clear as day that it is impossible for either side in the North to get everything they want, yet there seems a remarkable need on both sides to seek reassurance that every tiny detail can be hammered out to their satisfaction.

That, however, is not the way of true politics. There are many areas that in the end on both sides will have to be taken on trust. The fact of the elimination of IRA arms may be one, though there is evidently a quite specific plan in place to ensure that there is adequate monitoring and oversight of that happening.

The Americans could play a very useful role with the DUP in assuring them that if they take the historic step of trusting their better judgment and agreeing to work through the final details of a new settlement, then they can rely on American backing and support.

Such a scenario worked out very well for Sinn Fein before the first IRA ceasefire when the Clinton administration gave them key reassurance. It may now be time for the DUP to receive the same reassurance form this American administration. 

If it is forthcoming it may prove to be a dealmaker in Northern Ireland, where a resolution to the age old armed conflict seems just a common compromise away.