Facing the New Realities

THERE is almost a sense of relief at the outcome of the Northern Ireland Assembly elections last week, as if the smoke has finally cleared and we are finally able to see the battlefield as it truly is.

The new reality is evident. Sinn Fein have taken over on the Nationalist side and Ian Paisley’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) on the other side, and they now face each other across a no man’s land full of political recriminations.

In some ways that is better than what we experienced for the years leading into this election. We had several phony wars, illusionary peace deals and a deep cynicism on all sides if anything that was being negotiated would stick.

That was because the position of Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble was so tenuous that it seemed he was spending all his political energy just surviving while others were hacking the ground from underneath him at every opportunity.

Now, at least, the reality is clear. If Sinn Fein and the DUP can somehow work out a deal in conjunction with the two governments, then we will have a lasting settlement in Northern Ireland.

The notion that Paisley and Gerry Adams can lie down together seems fanciful to some, yet a few short years ago it seemed utterly foolish to predict that Sinn Fein and the Ulster Unionist Party would hold face to face negotiations about the future governance of Northern Ireland.

There is one huge qualifier, however. It is evident that as long as Paisley is leader, it will be near impossible to bring about a satisfactory political settlement. 

Time, however, may take care of that. The DUP leader is a shadow of his former self and was little in evidence on television during the campaign. It is an open secret that great fears have been expressed about his health and that he may not be long for the leadership.

Wishful thinking some might say, but Paisley, like every other politician in Northern Ireland, must also recognize the reality that all has utterly changed in the North since the peace process began.

The most important statistic from the election is the fact that two-thirds of the electorate voted for candidates who were strongly pro Good Friday Agreement. 

In any other democracy, a margin of 66% in favor would represent an utter majority. In Northern Ireland, however, with its weighted system which insists on a majority in both communities, it still comes up short.

The reality, though, is that any leader of the DUP will have to deal with that two-thirds support. There can be no going back, catch cries aside, to the bad old days of one party rule and massive discrimination against Nationalists. It simply will not play.

Thus the DUP have a choice. After screaming form the sidelines all these years, suddenly they are on the field and control the ball. They can kick it away and continue to scream and holler, or they can get the message that negotiations are the only way forward.

There is no question that there are senior figures within the DUP who recognize that reality. Deputy leader Peter Robinson is on the record as stating that a just and lasting peace must be reached in the North. Other members of the party are similarly inclined. 

But until the looming shadow of Ian Paisley is removed from the scene it is difficult to see how that party can move forward.

The big loser in the election was Jeffrey Doanldson, the Ulster Unionist dissident whose repeated challenges to Trimble utterly undermined his leadership. 

His ideal situation was to hold a balance of power, with Trimble holding a narrow majority and Donaldson in the role of king-maker. That has not happened, and it seems inevitable that Donaldson will take his bitter feud into political oblivion with him.

That, at least, is one good outcome. The other is that the fog of war has been replaced with a certainty about what needs to be done. There is no question that if both sides can now come to an accommodation that deal will stick and be approved in both communities. That would end the uncertainty that has bedeviled the peace process since its