Over to You, Ian

Editorial

Ian Paisley’s worst nightmare has come true. After years of having the IRA’s skirt to hide behind, the Democratic Unionist Party leader has never had to utter anything more than an unqualified “no” to retain and even increase his support among the Unionist electorate.

As long as the IRA were maiming and killing, Big Ian was secure in his position. There was no need for complicated politics.

Tearing down any Unionist leader who dared to parlay with the dreaded Republicans was his favorite sport. But now it is Paisley who finds himself in the bullring.

It is easy to see why. Sinn Fein has addressed its major weakness in spectacular fashion. It had become evident for some time that a twin track approach of mixing politics and the armalite had to come to an end.

There were entirely legitimate reasons why that had to be so, not least the understandable refusal of other parties to share power, either in Dublin or Belfast, with a party not completely committed to democratic means.

That issue has now been resolved and the IRA has taken the political path, a huge gamble for an organization known for its ultra-cautious approach to major decisions.

Now Paisley is faced with a similar dilemma. He can no longer rely on the name-calling, the taunts and the fire and brimstone speeches. The main enemy has evaporated in the night, slipped off under cover of darkness, and he is left alone facing into a huge vacuum.

Does he have the wit and ability to counter this strategic Republican move and finally be seen as a man of peace who shifted his ground in an effort to bring about an equitable solution for all?

There are some grounds for believing so. After all, Paisley came close to a deal last December pretty much on the same terms that are on offer now. He also knows that if he stalls on this occasion the blame game will come to rest squarely on his husky shoulders.

Paisley much prefers to point the finger at others, rather than square up to his own responsibilities. But now, he has a short time to make up his mind.

The two governments will likely give him some space to indicate whether he really wants to bring back devolution and a local parliament in Northern Ireland, or continue the policies that have increasingly alienated successive British and Irish governments.

It is difficult to know which path he will choose. Those who see him as purely a bigot miss the quick mind and acute sense of political positioning which has seen him end his political career as the undisputed king of Ulster Unionism.

Those who see him as a pragmatic political figure, however, miss the demagoguery, the ability to foment trouble while managing never to be directly connected to it. The Loyalist violence of a few weeks ago when he warned beforehand of trouble merely added fuel to those incipient fires.

Paisley is now at the end of a long career. There are many underlings in his own party uneasily watching and circling, wondering when the once invincible one will pass on.

Paisley must be acutely aware that his legacy at present is of a bombast who refused all political compromise and ensured that the North’s misery continued long after it should have been ameliorated.

He must come to the same recognition that the IRA did and in this respect they are very much alike, though Paisley would perish that thought.

The IRA understood how the game had shifted, how the new political strategy had won the Republican movement more of a grasp on real power than decades of a civil conflict.

For Paisley too, the last 30 years have featured only bitter talk and adamant espousal of “no surrender,” but where has it brought his own people, except to the edge of despair and self-doubt for many as events cascade around them?

It comes down to this. Without the IRA to kick around we will finally see the cut of Paisley’s political jib. Hopefully we will see it sooner rather than later.