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The world is waiting for another man of vision
During the nine days of mourning following the death of Pope John Paul II speculation turns to who will be his successor. MALCOLM ROGERS assesses the chances of the current front-runners.
 According to tradition there are three possible ways for a new Pope to be chosen: The first is by acclamation — where a Cardinal feeling divinely inspired proclaims the new Pope.
He will stand up in the conclave and declare: “Most Eminent Fathers, in view of the singular and virtue and probity of the Most Reverend XXXXX, I judge him worthy to be elected Roman Pontiff and I now choose him as Pope.”
Then if all other electors feel similarly inspired they will simultaneously shout out the word Eligo and the conclave will be over.
The second mode of election is by delegation — where if agreeable to all the other Cardinals a committee of up to 15 Cardinals may elect the new Pope.
However, for various diplomatic, geographical and religious reasons, the next Pope will almost certainly be elected by secret ballot of the 117 Cardinals eligible to vote.
Any Catholic male who is unmarried could in theory be elected Pope by these 117 men — but in practice the College of Cardinals will chose the 264th Pontiff from their own number.
Apart from being a Cardinal, two basic requirements are that any candidate is able to speak both fluent Italian and English. The first so that he can understand the intricacies of the Curia (the Vatican civil service) the second because English is now the global language. Also a Pope who has a lot of media savvy would also be a help.
After Pope John Paul’s long, innovative papacy many in the Vatican feel that what is needed is someone who will consolidate rather than reform. This would undoubtedly favour the older candidates. There is also a feeling that the next Pope will be Italian.
If a safe pair of hands is what is required the next Pope is likely to come from the Italian Cardinals.
And there’s another, slightly more secular point - Father Brendan Mahoney, former Professor of Moral Philosophy, explains: “The Italians don’t like to have the Papacy out of their hands for too long. After all, until Pope John Paul II we had 450 years of uninterrupted Italian rule at the Vatican.”
Whatever the reasons for his election, an Italian Pope may just be what is required. In the current global political climate Italy can be considered one of the more benign — and less important — Western powers, a definite plus. According to Father Mahoney, a Third World Pope might be seen as too political an appointment, a destabilising force in the world.
In short our best bet is an Italian Pope who speaks English, who is an internationalist not a nationalist, who is conservative but not fundamentalist, someone who is used to dealing with the Islamic world, one who has no taint of the scandal of paedophilia about him, and one who, above all, has a moral and spiritual authority.
Cardinals from around the world elect the successor in a centuries-old ritual called the conclave.
This begins between 15 and 20 days after a pope’s death and only Cardinals under the age of 80 may cast a vote.
Before the conclave, coalition-builders will have been forging alliances. Senior Cardinals who have little chance of becoming Pope can still exert a considerable influence on the vote.
On the day the conclave begins, the Cardinals will move in procession into the Sistine Chapel.
From this point, there will be four ballots a day — two in the morning and two in the afternoon — until a new pope is chosen. Cardinals write their choice on a piece of paper taking care to disguise their handwriting as much as they can.
The ballot papers are burned after every second vote — at around midday and in the late afternoon or early evening. Chemicals are used so those watching outside can see black smoke if there is no decision and white smoke once a new Pope has been chosen.
Previously a new Pope had to be chosen by a two-thirds majority of Cardinals. But in his 1996 apostolic constitution John Paul put forward changes that would allow the election of a pope by a simple majority — but only if no successor had been agreed after about 30 ballots.
The new Pope then chooses the name by which he wishes to be called, dons his robes and appears on the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica. |
When the white smoke wafts out of the chimney stack of the Sistine Chapel signalling the election of the next Supreme Pontiff of the Western Church most observers in the Curia will be surprised if the new man is not drawn from one of the following:
THE FAVOURITE
Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi (age 71)
The frontrunner amongst Vatican insiders, particularly if the conclave decides to go for an Italian.
As Archbishop of Milan he is leader of the most populous diocese in Europe. Described as a moderate conservative he’s viewed sympathetically by influential lay groupings such as Opus Dei, as well as by Pope John Paul himself.
ADVANTAGES: Italian, right politics, good pastor
DRAWBACKS: Tends to be a bit solemn. Also there is an old Vatican saying: “He goes into the conclave as Pope comes out Cardinal.” In other words, the favourite rarely gets the job.
THE LATIN AMERICAN FAVOURITE
Archbishop Cardinal Claudio Hummes of Sao Paulo, Brazil (age 70)
ADVANTAGES: Head of one of the most intensely Catholic countries in the world, Cardinal Hummes is seen as moderate, and has spoken out regularly for human rights. There’s also some feeling about that it is Latin America’s turn.
DRAWBACKS: Might be seen as too political, and also if the conclave decides to go Italian he will be out of the running at an early stage.
THE DARK HORSE
Cardinal Francis Arinze (age 72)
Despite the prophet Nostradamus’s prediction that the last pope will be black, Cardinal Arinze from Nigeria is a serious possibility, although many people feel that the Church is not yet ready for its next black Pope. (The last one was, Galasius I, way back in 492 AD).
ADVANTAGES: His rapport with the Muslim world — he comes from a country which is 50 per cent Muslim. Also, he is the former head of the Pontifical Council for Inter-religious Dialogue - Arinze is Mr. Interfaith and helped arrange Pope John Paul II’s first-ever visit to a mosque.
DRAWBACKS: Isn’t Italian.
THE SECRETARY OF STATE
Cardinal Angelo Sodano (age 77)
If a ‘stopgap Pope’ is seen as the best thing for the Catholic Church to go for in these transitional times, Angelo Sodano could be the man.
ADVANTAGES: An Italian, Sodano is something of a super-diplomat, having held the top job in the Curia since 1991. He has been the Pope’s ‘prime minister’, and as such has built a considerable power base.
DRAWBACKS: Apart from his age he’s seen as being too much of a ‘civil servant’ and not enough of a pastor. Is also seen as having allied himself too much with Pinochet’s regime in Chile.
THE LORRY DRIVER’S SON
Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re (age 63)
The lorry driver’s son, this Italian intellectual is an expert on Islam.
ADVANTAGES: Apart from his empathy with the Islamic world, he is seen as media friendly and likely to appeal to younger Catholics. He is also the man if Conclave decides to go for a young Pope.
DRAWBACKS: Apart from his inexperience (he was only made cardinal in 2003) he may be too close to the Liberation movement.
THE CONSERVATIVE CHOICE
Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger (age 77)
Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, the chief architect of John Paul II’s moralist policy, and head of the Catholic Church’s Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith. Known by his supporters as the Pope-in-Waiting, and by liberals in the church as the ‘panzer cardinal’ because of his autocratic ways and Austrian origins.
ADVANTAGES: There is a feeling, that after such a long pontificate, the Vatican may look for a short, transitional papacy. Aged 77, Cardinal Ratzinger could fill that bill — as the old Italian saying goes, “Always follow a fat Pope with a skinny Pope.”
The election of Cardinal Ratzinger would also be a powerful restating of Pope John Paul’s
legacy.
DRAWBACKS: Even more conservative than Cardinal Biffi. Also — Cardinals rarely choose a new pope who is very similar to the previous one. And one other disadvantage — he’s not Italian
THE JEWISH POPE
Cardinal Jean-Marie Lustiger (age 78)
Cardinal Jean-Marie Lustiger is of Polish-Jewish descent, a child refugee from the Holocaust whose mother perished in Auschwitz.
Probably the main European non-Italian candidate. Should he ascend to St. Peter’s throne he would be the first Jewish-born Pope since St. Peter himself.
ADVANTAGES: Wonderful orator; correct age if an ‘old Pope’ is seen as the best choice.
DRAWBACKS: Isn’t Italian. |
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